New Developments April 2017

Energy-efficiency labels for buildings are working Energy-efficiency labels have brought energy savings of up to 30 percent in large commercial buildings in Los Angeles. Buildings account for about one-third of the energy consumption and carbon emissions in the US. Three major certification programs attempt to reduce building emissions: the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Energy Star Program, the US Green Building Council’s Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED), and the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Better Buildings Challenge. the Energy Star program is the most successful voluntary energy-efficiency program in the world. It has saved consumers and businesses $34 billion in electricity costs and prevented more than about 300 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions in one year.

Non-participating buildings tend to be smaller, older, and in less premium locations, but they are greater in number and represent two-thirds of commercial building emissions.

Efficient power converter for internet of things The "internet of things" is the idea that vehicles, appliances, civil structures, manufacturing equipment, and even livestock will soon have sensors that report information directly to networked servers, aiding with maintenance and the coordination of tasks. Those sensors will have to operate at very low powers, in order to extend battery life for months or make do with energy harvested from the environment. Those operations require relatively little current, but occasionally, the sensor might need to transmit an alert to a distant radio receiver. That requires much larger currents. researchers from MIT's Microsystems Technologies Laboratories (MTL) presented a new power converter that maintains its efficiency at currents ranging from 500 picoamps to 1 milliamp, a span that encompasses a 200,000-fold increase in current levels.

Renewable energy needed to drive uptake of electric vehicles Plugging into renewable energy sources outweighs the cost and short driving ranges for consumers intending to buy electric vehicles, according to a new study. "We found the majority of participants placed great emphasis on the need for electricity for electric vehicles to be produced from renewable energy sources in order for them to be a true alternative," he said. "For example, a petrol-driven vehicle produces 119g CO2-e/km, of which most are on-road emissions. In comparison, an electric vehicle produces zero on-road emissions," he said. "However, if electricity is generated from coal to charge an electric vehicle it produces 139g CO2-e/km well-to-wheel emissions, compared with only 9g CO2-e/km well-to-wheel emissions with electricity from renewable energy sources." Australia - the transport sector accounted for 16 per cent of the country's greenhouse gas emissions and 85 per cent of these were generated by road transport.

Viable technologies for 80% GHG emission reduction

As we saw previously, certain renewable energy sources are more in abundance than others. The biggest is solar, and one magnitude smaller is wind. One magnitude smaller again is biomass, and smaller than that in one magnitude again are geothermal energy, wave-tidal energy, and hydro-power. Abundance however does not solely determine which technologies are most viable to reach the 80% or more greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets by 2050. This also depends on the maturity of the technology, and whether or not it emits GHGs to begin with. Given these limitations, there are four main pathways to reach 80% GHG emission reduction by 2050.

Nuclear power generation

Nuclear power has as advantages that during generation there is no emission of the main GHG CO2 or methane (CH4), and it can be produced continuously, as opposed to intermittent renewables like solar and wind. Japan possesses over 60 years’ experience with this technique, a large amount of infrastructure and knowledge workers in the nuclear industry. Before the 2011 GEJET, Japan had 54 nuclear reactors in operation. Since then most of all had shut down for regular maintenance, after which the safety regulations have tightened and prevented restarting regularly scheduled operations. Due to the stricter regulations, some of the older plants have seen early retirement. 42 reactors remain capable of a restart, of which 24 have requested approval to restart. Plans from 2010 from the METI envisioned 50% of the total electricity coming from nuclear power; a plan that could be reawakened.

Disadvantages to nuclear power include Japan’s tectonically active location, leading not only to a high chance of natural hazards with potential disastrous effects as seen in the aftermath of the GEJET, but also a lack of safe storage space for the small amount of waste that remains unable to be processed further after nuclear power generation. A second issue is the reliance on imported uranium, as this resource cannot be mined in Japan itself. Some of the countries that have the most abundant uranium resources are Australia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, with whom political ties are likely to remain good. The environmental impacts of mining uranium however are often not factored into the cost of the resource. The third issue is that only several kg of nuclear material are needed in order to create nuclear weapons, and an large nuclear power plant produces several hundreds of kg annually. One the one hand, this makes any nuclear facility a potential target for terrorists and raises security issues until a more peaceful global society is created. On the other hand, the current reality is that Japan cannot fully abandon its nuclear power installations due to the necessity of using the hypothetical capability of producing nuclear weapons within several weeks as a potential threat for certain international political maneuvers, as instigated by other countries. This situation is unlikely to change in a significant way until the global powers are reorganized, or a stronger focus on global peace is enforced throughout citizens of all countries, including their governments. 

Japan's current energy use

Information from the Japan Center for Climate Change Actions shows that in 2015 most CO2 emissions came from the electricity generating sector and from industry, with 39 and 32% respectively. Transportation is another large contender at 17% of the total CO2 emissions. 

[Based on information from http://www.jccca.org/chart/chart04_04.html]

New Developments March 2017

Research advances energy savings for oil, gas industries A Washington State University research team has improved an important catalytic reaction commonly used in the oil and gas industries. The innovation could lead to dramatic energy savings and reduced pollution. Methane also is a primary ingredient in natural gas used to heat homes, and it can be converted into many useful products including electricity. But breaking the strong bond between its carbon and hydrogen takes a tremendous amount of energy. To convert methane, the oil and gas industry most often uses a nickel-based catalyst. But it is often less expensive to simply burn the methane in giant flares on site; however, this adds greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, contributing to global warming, and wastes energy. In the U.S., for example, the amount of methane burned annually is as much as 25 percent of the country's natural gas consumption. The researchers determined that they can dramatically reduce the energy needed to break the bond between carbon and hydrogen by adding a tiny bit of carbon within the nickel-based catalyst. This creates nickel carbide, which generates a positive electrical field. This novel catalyst weakens the methane molecule's hydrogen-carbon bond, allowing it to break at much lower temperatures.

A city’s solar potential depends on the length of its road network This is because the formation of the road network defines the spaces that can be filled by buildings. And the resulting arrangement of buildings influences the amount of sunlight each building receives.

Road maps, visions, scenarios

Many policy plans and studies concerning the emission reduction of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases (GHG) rely on ideas of possible future energy production and consumption. There are many names for such ideas: road maps, visions, scenarios, forecasts and backcasts; and equally many different definitions. A main distinction can be made between an extension or a continuation of business as usual or projections made following current trends; and an ideal future situation, state or goal combined with steps as to how to reach this goal. McDowall and Eames [doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2005.12.006] describe this distinction as descriptive or normative, and apply the following definitions: 

"Descriptive:

• Forecasts use formal quantitative extrapolation and modelling to predict likely futures from current trends.
• Exploratory scenarios explore possible futures. They emphasise drivers, and do not specify a predetermined desirable end state towards which must storylines progress.
• Technical scenarios explore possible future technological systems. They emphasise the technical feasibility and implications of different options, rather than explore how different futures might unfold.

How fast should we start working on greenhouse gas emission reduction?

Climate change, though inevitable, can still be mitigated. If we are to enable the scenario with a maximum 2 °C increase, we need to construct emission targets corresponding to reaching that goal in a timely fashion. But how timely?

Already two years ago the New Climate Institute and the Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency compared the results of different organizations in determining the target years for greenhouse gas (GHG) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) net zero emissions.

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in their Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from 2014 that, if we want to have a 66% chance of meeting the 2 °C target, global GHG emissions should be net zero around 2100 and CO₂, the main contributor of GHG emissions, should be net zero around 2085. That is to say, if we start measures in 2010 to reach that target.
• The United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) analyzed in 2014 what would happen if we started reducing emissions in 2020 rather than 2010, which is a more likely starting time for many countries. This led to global GHG emissions having to be net zero around 2075, and CO₂ around 2065.
• The Climate Action Tracker used the IPCC data but instead analyzed how we could have an 85% chance of meeting the 2 °C target. For this, GHG emissions would have to be net zero around 2070, and CO₂ around 2055. 

It seems that with our current research vision of 80% GHG emission reduction and beyond for 2050, we would not be able to achieve this target on time, and our emphasis should be on ‘and beyond’ even more. 

Figure based on Net phase out of global GHG emissions, NCI, 2015.

Effects of 2 °C increase Japan

As can be seen in this hypothetical weather report for 2050 from the World Meteorological Organization, despite a successful 80% greenhouse gas emission reduction, climate change in Japan has led to elongated heat waves and droughts of over 50 days, and the number of annual heat-related deaths has risen to 6,500. The increased average temperature is affecting the environment as well, with trees delaying their traditional autumnal shift in colors, which consequently has shifted tourism patterns. Coral reefs in Okinawa have become affected by irreversible bleaching and are attracting less tourists. Rice yields have increased but the quality has decreased. The average annual number of cyclones making landfall has increased from 2.6 between 1971 and 2000, to 5.2 between 2031 and 2050, and the number of category 4 and 5 storms (super typhoons) has doubled, which has caused increased deaths, infrastructure damages and power blackouts. While the cyclones bring a temporary relief to heat waves, their destruction includes storm surges up to 10 meters. In addition, the sea level has risen by 40 cm, diminishing beach areas and requiring additional flood protective infrastructure for a great deal of the nearly 30,000 km coastline. However, due to Japan’s long experience in preparing for natural hazards and investing in mitigation, a larger share of the population now lives in safer areas, through combined demographic and infrastructural plans.

This is the best case future for us and our children we are trying to make happen today. The effects are summarized in the figure below:

References

Rice yields and other effects on flora and fauna: Climate change and its impact in Japan, Financial Year 2012, Ministry of the Environment. 

Average number of cyclones: Typhoons more predictable but still deadly, Japan Times. 

More about future cyclones: Asian Typhoons becoming more intense, study finds, The Guardian.