Road maps, visions, scenarios

Many policy plans and studies concerning the emission reduction of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases (GHG) rely on ideas of possible future energy production and consumption. There are many names for such ideas: road maps, visions, scenarios, forecasts and backcasts; and equally many different definitions. A main distinction can be made between an extension or a continuation of business as usual or projections made following current trends; and an ideal future situation, state or goal combined with steps as to how to reach this goal. McDowall and Eames [doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2005.12.006] describe this distinction as descriptive or normative, and apply the following definitions: 

"Descriptive:

• Forecasts use formal quantitative extrapolation and modelling to predict likely futures from current trends.
• Exploratory scenarios explore possible futures. They emphasise drivers, and do not specify a predetermined desirable end state towards which must storylines progress.
• Technical scenarios explore possible future technological systems. They emphasise the technical feasibility and implications of different options, rather than explore how different futures might unfold.

Normative

• Visions are elaborations of a desirable and (more or less) plausible future. They emphasise the benefits rather than the pathways through which a future might be achieved.
• Backcasts and pathways start with a predetermined ‘end’ point—a desirable and plausible future. They then investigate possible pathways to that point. 
• Road maps describe a sequence of measures designed to bring about a desirable future. Studies from the previous four groups, or elements of these groups, frequently form the basis for the identification of specific measures, but not always."

From this we can derive four applicable methods to increase knowledge on: 

1) how existing trends in energy production and consumption are likely to unfold in the coming decades by means of forecasts and technical scenarios

2) what a desired future of 80% or more GHG emission reduction by 2050 means for energy production and consumption processes by means of backcasting and road maps

3) how to bridge the gap between projections and desired state. For this we need to develop new methodology and combine knowledge interdisciplinary from policy studies, behavioral economics and lifestyle change, human rights, media, and other fields beyond energy alone.