Friday, March 31, 2017

New Developments March 2017

Research advances energy savings for oil, gas industries A Washington State University research team has improved an important catalytic reaction commonly used in the oil and gas industries. The innovation could lead to dramatic energy savings and reduced pollution. Methane also is a primary ingredient in natural gas used to heat homes, and it can be converted into many useful products including electricity. But breaking the strong bond between its carbon and hydrogen takes a tremendous amount of energy. To convert methane, the oil and gas industry most often uses a nickel-based catalyst. But it is often less expensive to simply burn the methane in giant flares on site; however, this adds greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, contributing to global warming, and wastes energy. In the U.S., for example, the amount of methane burned annually is as much as 25 percent of the country's natural gas consumption. The researchers determined that they can dramatically reduce the energy needed to break the bond between carbon and hydrogen by adding a tiny bit of carbon within the nickel-based catalyst. This creates nickel carbide, which generates a positive electrical field. This novel catalyst weakens the methane molecule's hydrogen-carbon bond, allowing it to break at much lower temperatures.

A city’s solar potential depends on the length of its road network This is because the formation of the road network defines the spaces that can be filled by buildings. And the resulting arrangement of buildings influences the amount of sunlight each building receives.


Friday, March 17, 2017

Road maps, visions, scenarios

Many policy plans and studies concerning the emission reduction of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases (GHG) rely on ideas of possible future energy production and consumption. There are many names for such ideas: road maps, visions, scenarios, forecasts and backcasts; and equally many different definitions. A main distinction can be made between an extension or a continuation of business as usual or projections made following current trends; and an ideal future situation, state or goal combined with steps as to how to reach this goal. McDowall and Eames [doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2005.12.006] describe this distinction as descriptive or normative, and apply the following definitions: 

"Descriptive:
  • Forecasts use formal quantitative extrapolation and modelling to predict likely futures from current trends.
  • Exploratory scenarios explore possible futures. They emphasise drivers, and do not specify a predetermined desirable end state towards which must storylines progress.
  • Technical scenarios explore possible future technological systems. They emphasise the technical feasibility and implications of different options, rather than explore how different futures might unfold.

Friday, March 10, 2017

How fast should we start working on greenhouse gas emission reduction?

Climate change, though inevitable, can still be mitigated. If we are to enable the scenario with a maximum 2 °C increase, we need to construct emission targets corresponding to reaching that goal in a timely fashion. But how timely?

Already two years ago the New Climate Institute and the Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency compared the results of different organizations in determining the target years for greenhouse gas (GHG) and carbon dioxide (CO2) net zero emissions.
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in their Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from 2014 that, if we want to have a 66% chance of meeting the 2 °C target, global GHG emissions should be net zero around 2100 and CO2, the main contributor of GHG emissions, should be net zero around 2085. That is to say, if we start measures in 2010 to reach that target.
  • The United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) analyzed in 2014 what would happen if we started reducing emissions in 2020 rather than 2010, which is a more likely starting time for many countries. This led to global GHG emissions having to be net zero around 2075, and CO2 around 2065.
  • The Climate Action Tracker used the IPCC data but instead analyzed how we could have an 85% chance of meeting the 2 °C target. For this, GHG emissions would have to be net zero around 2070, and CO2 around 2055. 

It seems that with our current research vision of 80% GHG emission reduction and beyond for 2050, we would not be able to achieve this target on time, and our emphasis should be on ‘and beyond’ even more. 

Friday, March 3, 2017

Effects of 2 °C increase Japan

As can be seen in this hypothetical weather report for 2050 from the World Meteorological Organization, despite a successful 80% greenhouse gas emission reduction, climate change in Japan has led to elongated heat waves and droughts of over 50 days, and the number of annual heat-related deaths has risen to 6,500. The increased average temperature is affecting the environment as well, with trees delaying their traditional autumnal shift in colors, which consequently has shifted tourism patterns. Coral reefs in Okinawa have become affected by irreversible bleaching and are attracting less tourists. Rice yields have increased but the quality has decreased. The average annual number of cyclones making landfall has increased from 2.6 between 1971 and 2000, to 5.2 between 2031 and 2050, and the number of category 4 and 5 storms (super typhoons) has doubled, which has caused increased deaths, infrastructure damages and power blackouts. While the cyclones bring a temporary relief to heat waves, their destruction includes storm surges up to 10 meters. In addition, the sea level has risen by 40 cm, diminishing beach areas and requiring additional flood protective infrastructure for a great deal of the nearly 30,000 km coastline. However, due to Japan’s long experience in preparing for natural hazards and investing in mitigation, a larger share of the population now lives in safer areas, through combined demographic and infrastructural plans.

This is the best case future for us and our children we are trying to make happen today. The effects are summarized in the figure below:

References