A lot of information is available for projecting what the future global number of cars, and electric vehicles might look like. Looking at the production of vehicles over the past few years, the top vehicle manufacturers have stayed roughly the same. The top 12 manufacturers were identical from 2010-2015 and produced 75% of all vehicles.
The absolute number of Electric Vehicles may not be that high, but the global total has already passed 2 million. Plotting on exponential scales, several countries have more than 100,000 battery electric vehicles (BEV) or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV).
Comparing the number of EV to the total number of cars per country, Norway is a leading example, with the Netherlands and Sweden showing comparable growth. The initial years of breaking through into the existing markets can be tough, as shown in India, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, and the US.
The same data but zoomed in on the bottom 4%:
Several countries have prepared policies to switch to EV in the coming years, and several automobile developers have set production goals, as combined in the image below. The other top manufacturers have also set goals, but they are less ambitious or do not concern EV. These include:
- Ford: 40% of models should have an electrified version by 2020, 70% of sales should be BEV/PHEV/hybrid in China by 2025
- PSA: 80% of cars should have a hybrid/EV version
- FIAT: currently 1 BEV and 1 PHEV model; no further EV plans
- Toyota-Suzuki: focus on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; BEV intentions have been stated
Keeping the past trends in total production and EV production, and the suggested governmental and manufacturer goals in mind, I estimated the future number of cars, as described in part 2.
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