New Developments June 2017

Graphene electrodes offer new functionalities in molecular electronic nanodevices The field of nanoscale molecular electronics aims to exploit individual molecules as the building blocks for electronic devices, to improve functionality and enable developers to achieve an unprecedented level of device miniaturization and control. The main obstacle hindering progress in this field is the absence of stable contacts between the molecules and metals used that can both operate at room temperature and provide reproducible results. Graphene possesses not only excellent mechanical stability, but also exceptionally high electronic and thermal conductive properties, making the emerging 2D material very attractive for a range of possible applications in molecular electronics. "We find that by carefully designing the chemical contact of molecules to graphene-based materials, we can tune their functionality," said Dr Rungger. "Our single-molecule diodes showed that the rectification direction of electric current can be indeed switched by changing the nature of chemical contact of each molecule," added Dr Rudnev. The findings will also help researchers working in electro-catalysis and energy conversion research design graphene/molecule interfaces in their experimental systems to improve the efficiency of the catalyst or device.

Other lithium consuming processes

There are many lithium consuming processes outside of batteries, whether for electric vehicles (EV) or not. Examples include ceramics, glass, polymers, aluminium, medications, continuous casting molds, air conditioning, lubricating greases, etc. However, there is a distinct lack of data on the lithium consumption of the various lithium consuming processes. 

One scientific paper from 2009 (Yakson and Tilton, doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2009.05.002) estimated the growth rates for 8 different processes until 2100. More recently, two industry reports from Deutsche Bank (DB) (2016) and Stormcrow (SC) (2015) included estimated for a more elaborate range of processes, until 2025. As they both distinguish different processes, only a few can be compared for the assumed volume and growth rates. The resulting similarities and differences, and thereby implications on total lithium demand, are interesting to note. 

I compared these two estimates per process on total volume and growth rates, and extrapolated reasonable growth rates until 2050 for each process to magnify the effect of the estimates and provide a range of likely total industry growth for lithium consuming processes other than EV batteries. The first step was to convert the estimates of lithium carbonate equivalent into lithium in tons. Next I determined annual growth rates for the SC data. For both data sets I estimated reasonable growth rates per process as listed in the table below. As a last step, I compared both data sets to my previously estimated total of demand from lithium consuming processes other than EV batteries (dependent on Yakson and Tilton, 2009).

Estimating the future number of cars - 2

I prepared two scenarios to estimate the future number of electric vehicles (EV), and total number of cars, on a global scale. 

The first scenario is a business as usual (BaU) scenario, where the annual number of new cars is based on the average growth rate of total cars from 1999-2016 (calculated to be 3.28% - data from OICA). The annual number of new EV and the total stock of EV were estimated in line with the target of 41 million cars sold by 2040 (What will the global EV Light-Duty Vehicle fleet look like through 2050?, Sitty & Taft, Fuel Freedom Foundation, 2016). 

The second scenario is called 2DS, as it is in line with the 2 degree Celsius scenario from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This corresponds to reaching 80% greenhouse gas emission reduction by 2050. In this scenario the annual number of new cars is based on the low growth scenario in Sitty & Taft (2016), which leads to 2% growth until 2040, and 1% until 2050. The annual number of new EV and the total stock of EV were based on the IEA goals of 25 million stock by 2020 and 200 million stock by 2030 (Global EV Outlook 2017, IEA, 2016). 

For both scenarios, the total stock of cars is based on OICA figures including the current stock in use (2015), the average of retired vehicles (2006-2015), and the annual number of cars. The ratio of battery electric vehicles (BEV) to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) was based on the average of annual new BEV/PHEV registrations (data taken from the IEA, 2008-2016). This lead to an increase of BEV over PHEV, with 100% BEV reached by 2028. 

Estimating the future number of cars - 1

A lot of information is available for projecting what the future global number of cars, and electric vehicles might look like. Looking at the production of vehicles over the past few years, the top vehicle manufacturers have stayed roughly the same. The top 12 manufacturers were identical from 2010-2015 and produced 75% of all vehicles.